Facts Speak : Economy : Current state of Indian Economy : Part 2

Continued.

Forget job growth, employment in India fell between 2014 and 2016
Data from the latest KLEMS India database shows that employment in the Indian economy shrank by 0.1% in 2015-16 and by 0.2% in 2014-15

22. Where are the jobs ?. Employment growth has suffered badly in recent years

23. 1.5 million jobs lost in first 4 months of 2017 which was immediate effect of demonetization

24. Jobs added under prime minister’s Employment generation programme 2008-2016 . All.time low.

25. India’s growth is slowing down and lowest in 3 years.

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/this-new-monster-can-slow-down-indias-growth-rate-despite-gst/amp_articleshow/59438574.cms

26. India Inflation falling. Economists lowered their forecasts for the 2018 and 2019 fiscal years

27.Declining bank credit to the industry. Purely policy paralysis is the reason. Note ban continue to slow down economy.

https://www.dnaindia.com/business/report-note-ban-has-and-may-continue-to-result-in-a-slowdown-sbi-2468474/amp

28. RBI surplus transferred to Govt is low.

29. So #DeMonetisation benefit is in worser and data fudging happens as usual by Modi and co. Of the all RBI lost the credibility.

30. What has been the single.biggest failure of the Narendra Modi goverment

31. How the prices of essential commodities changed over last 3 years

32. Nifty EPS growth in Jun 2017 quarter

33. Overall FY19 estimates are limited now. Modi and co may ask one more term but definitely to damage . Results show it .

34. As per the RBI data, it’s safe to say that demonetisation has been a failure of epic proportions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-india-41100610

As far as the Modi government is concerned,it is unlikely to admit it was a big mistake &will continue to put a positive spin on it.

GDP is reduced to ~1%, GVA to 1.3%. 2017-2018 looks scary. More than 2% is the damage for sure.

35. India’s GDP.slips to 5.7% from 7.9% in the same Quarter a year ago.

https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/gdp-growth-at-3-year-low-of-5-7-in-apr-june-as-gst-demonetisation-bite/amp_articleshow/60315709.cms

36.Ten figures that underline impact of PM Modi’s note ban

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/demonetisation-10-figures-that-underline-impact-of-pm-modis-note-ban-4821657/lite/

37. Demonetisation and GST take a toll on India’s GDP growth.

#DemonetisationDisaster is what economists say

Good, bad, what the hell was that: Economists are still scratching their heads over demonetisation

https://qz.com/india/1067442/good-bad-what-the-hell-was-that-economist-are-still-scratching-their-heads-over-demonetisation/amp/

India’s central bank doesn’t have many good things to say about the economy post-demonetisation.

https://qz.com/india/1066196/rbi-on-demonetisation-indias-central-bank-doesnt-have-a-lot-of-good-things-to-say-about-the-economy/amp

Failed objectives: RBI report is a reality check on government's many claims about demonetisation

The clear lesson is that tax reforms and effective monitoring of suspicious transactions are a better alternative for addressing the stated objectives.

https://amp.scroll.in/article/849159/failed-objectives-rbi-report-has-demolished-the-government-s-many-claims-about-demonetisation

38. Fall in GVA growth post #DemonetisationScam and #GST

39. Agricultural growth seen the worst post #DemonetisationScam and #GST

40. Sentiments declining and Unemployment rising

41. Jobs outlook lingers near 12 year low worser than global financial crisis 2008. Modi made artificial crisis and downfall with his demonetization gimmick.

42. Manufacturing wages in India dropped last year while salaries of other sector rose .

Indian manufacturers, who previously preferred to cut white-collar jobs rather than factory-floor workers, are now slashing all over.

https://www.livemint.com/Politics/bzfrqgomp7TNdaCnCnZHrK/Indian-economy-in-a-tailspin-What-went-wrong.html

43. Economic report card of BJP government lead by Modi since 2014.

  • Domestic , external woes begin to pinch.
  • Non performing assets of state owned banks increasing
  • Stagnation of rural jobs pending.

GDP to remain below 6 per cent in Q2 FY'18: SBI report

https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/gdp-to-remain-below-6-per-cent-in-q2-fy18-sbi-report/amp_articleshow/60513595.cms

Economic growth decelerated to a three-year low of 5.7% in the June quarter of 2017-18.

current deficit (CAD) hit a 4-year high in the same quarter at 2.4% of GDP despite benign oil prices that have cushioned govt finances.

Less focus on MGNREGS, especially during the droughts 14-15 ,15-16,aggravated the rural demand situation and dampened rural growth.

With #DeMonetisationDisaster , the cash-dependent unorganized sector that makes up 40% of India’s GDP came to a standstill.

with anecdotal evidence showing farmers being forced to dump their produce for want of buyers ,small businesses laying off employees.

The implementation of GST barely 8 months after the note ban further unsettled the supply networks with dealers reducing stocks and companies drastically cutting production, leading to the three-year low GDP print of 5.7% in the June quarter.

Modi does nothing for NPAs, or bad loans, in state-owned banks touched Rs6.41 trillion by Mar 2017 from Rs 1.56 trillion on Mar 2013.

44. Farmers in distress. Most Kharif crops ruling below minimum support price

45. Sensex, rupee slump on wave of grim economic news

46. Falling employment

Jobs are dying . https://twitter.com/RURALINDIA/status/915043958304137216

47. Start-up launches slump to just 800 so far this year. 2017 data.

48. Values of stalled products reaches yet another high.

49. Fall in new investment proposals

Intentions to set up new productive capacities has reached a new low.Projects worth Rs.845B proposed during the quarter ended Sep 2017.

This is the lowest level of intentions to invest seen in a quarter during the tenure of the Modi government.

In fact, investment announcements in the Sep-2017 quarter are lower than the investments proposed even during the June 2014 quarter.

Jun 2014 when investments had come to a halt for all practical purposes in the face of political uncertainty.

There was never really a revival of investments during the Modi govt .

https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&dt=2017-10-02%2011:15:05&msec=550

New investment announcements at 19-quarter low in Q2FY18. 196/n

https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&dt=2017-10-02%2017:35:59&msec=310

50. Except for a few months,consumer sentiments remained below the base level through most months since Jan 2016.

To many, the promise of acche din has become a joke rather than a promise now.

New project announcements decline sharply . Yes it’s Ache din which Modi claimed way back in 2014.

To be continued

Part 3

https://medium.com/@tamizhsudhakar/facts-speak-economy-current-state-of-indian-economy-part-3-4a8f6603e66f

Rationalist, Engineer